94538 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 32 points: about 66% of voters vote Democratic and 34% Republican.
About 47% of adults in 94538 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 94538, ~31% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 94538 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 94538 leans more Democratic than 12 of 54 neighbors.
94538 runs about 13 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Why 94538 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 94538, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 94538 live in densely developed areas, about 63 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 94538 sits in the top quarter (about 54%, above 91% of zip codes).
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 94538, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 94538 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 51% of households in 94538 rent, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 12% of homes in 94538 have more than one occupant per room, above 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.