96781 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 49% of adults in 96781 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96781, ~33% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96781 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96781 is the most Democratic-leaning.
96781 runs about 10 points more Democratic than Hawaii as a whole.
Why 96781 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96781, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 44% of adults in 96781 have never been married, well above similar-sized zip codes (around 26%).
Frequent mental distress and voter turnout
Places with a high frequent-mental-distress rate tend to turn out at a lower rate; 96781, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Reported mental distress does not drive turnout; it reflects economic and health conditions tied to voting.
Why turnout in 96781 looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 6% of homes in 96781 have more than one occupant per room, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.