96749 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 66% of adults in 96749 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96749, ~38% vote Democratic, ~28% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96749 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96749 leans more Democratic than 1 of 4 neighbors.
96749 runs about 10 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96749. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+2), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 96749 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 96749. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 96749, HI sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 96749 looks the way it does
Turnout in 96749 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.