96786 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 40% of adults in 96786 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96786, ~22% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96786 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96786 leans more Democratic than 7 of 20 neighbors.
96786 runs about 14 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96786. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+15) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+3), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 96786 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 96786. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 96786, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96786 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 65% of households in 96786 rent, about 40 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in 96786 report food insecurity, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.