96857 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 46% of adults in 96857 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96857, ~26% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96857 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96857 leans more Democratic than 11 of 19 neighbors.
96857 runs about 11 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Why 96857 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96857, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 93% of adults in 96857 have never been married, far above similar-sized zip codes (around 31%).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 96857, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96857 looks the way it does
Turnout in 96857 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.