97438 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 97438 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 97438, ~27% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 97438 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 97438 is the most Republican-leaning.
97438 runs about 42 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while 97438 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 97438 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 97438, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
97438 votes against the grain of Oregon. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while 97438 runs about 42 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and 97438 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 5%, below 80% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 87% of households in 97438 are family households, in the top fraction of zip codes.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 97438, OR sits below the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in 97438 looks the way it does
Turnout in 97438 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.