Afton leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 97% of adults in Afton typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Afton, ~52% vote Democratic, ~46% Republican, and ~2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Afton compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Afton leans more Democratic than 43 of 90 neighbors.
Politically, Afton sits close to the rest of Minnesota.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Afton. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+11) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Afton leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Afton, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 58% of adults in Afton hold a bachelor's degree, about 30 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Afton, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Afton looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Afton is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 78%, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 98% of households in Afton own their home, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Afton have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- St. Marys Point, MN D+7
- Lake St. Croix Beach, MN D+8
- Lakeland, MN Even
- Lakeland Shores, MN R+2
- Woodbury, MN D+22
- Lake Elmo, MN D+4
- Hudson, WI R+8
- North Hudson, WI R+8
- Cottage Grove, MN D+7
- Bayport, MN D+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Stone Ridge, NY D+39
- Ecru, MS R+74
- Fairview, OK R+68
- Port Aransas, TX R+43
- Vian, OK R+53
- Richford, VT R+27
- Battleboro, NC D+20
- Five Points, NM D+26
- Jamestown, PA R+44
- Abbotsford, WI R+37
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.