Cottage Grove leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.
About 88% of adults in Cottage Grove typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Cottage Grove, ~47% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~12% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Cottage Grove compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Cottage Grove leans more Democratic than 41 of 95 neighbors.
Politically, Cottage Grove sits close to the rest of Minnesota.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Cottage Grove. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+15) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 16 points.
Why Cottage Grove leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Cottage Grove, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 82% of residents in Cottage Grove live in densely developed areas, about 46 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Cottage Grove sits in the top quarter (about 40%, above 87% of cities).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Cottage Grove, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Cottage Grove looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Cottage Grove is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- St. Paul Park, MN D+3
- Newport, MN D+12
- Woodbury, MN D+22
- Inver Grove Heights, MN D+10
- Nininger, MN R+20
- South St. Paul, MN D+18
- Afton, MN D+5
- Sunfish Lake, MN D+12
- Landfall, MN D+11
- Hastings, MN R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Flowery Branch, GA R+40
- East Meadow, NY R+9
- Sewell, NJ R+9
- Fernandina Beach, FL R+33
- Salem, VA R+25
- Carpentersville, IL D+17
- La Quinta, CA Even
- Channelview, TX R+3
- Carlsbad, NM R+43
- Newburgh, IN R+26
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.