Lake Elmo is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in Lake Elmo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lake Elmo, ~53% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~-2% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lake Elmo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lake Elmo leans more Democratic than 35 of 95 neighbors.
Politically, Lake Elmo sits close to the rest of Minnesota.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lake Elmo. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+13) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+6), a spread of about 19 points.
Why Lake Elmo leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Lake Elmo. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Lake Elmo, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Lake Elmo looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Lake Elmo is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in Lake Elmo own their home, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Lake Elmo have completed high school, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Oakdale, MN D+17
- Pine Springs, MN D+4
- Landfall, MN D+11
- Oak Park Heights, MN D+16
- Willernie, MN D+12
- North St. Paul, MN D+18
- Woodbury, MN D+22
- Stillwater, MN D+12
- Mahtomedi, MN D+16
- Bayport, MN D+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Gonzalez, FL R+41
- Menominee, MI R+19
- Hailey, ID D+29
- Lexington, NE R+13
- Markham, IL D+72
- Fairmont, MN R+30
- Franklin Lakes, NJ R+20
- Wellford, SC R+30
- Bishop, CA Even
- Lake Butler, FL R+61
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.