Arbuckle leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 53% of adults in Arbuckle typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arbuckle, ~21% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arbuckle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arbuckle leans more Republican than 10 of 23 neighbors.
Arbuckle runs about 39 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Arbuckle is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arbuckle. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+36) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Arbuckle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arbuckle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Arbuckle votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 44%, modestly below the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Arbuckle runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Arbuckle, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Arbuckle looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Arbuckle is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Arbuckle rent, above 84% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Arbuckle report food insecurity, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Dunnigan, CA R+19
- Grimes, CA R+33
- Williams, CA R+5
- Sycamore, CA R+41
- Meridian, CA R+49
- Guinda, CA R+19
- Colusa, CA R+26
- Capay, CA R+19
- Kirkville, CA R+39
- Zamora, CA R+18
Cities with Similar Populations
- Providence Forge, VA R+12
- Winona, TX R+43
- Greenport, NY D+17
- Berwick, LA R+71
- Holt, AL D+23
- Lodi, OH R+39
- La Blanca, TX Even
- Dundee, OH R+73
- Grasonville, MD R+13
- Sperry, OK R+51
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.