Capay leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Capay typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Capay, ~23% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Capay compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Capay leans more Republican than 13 of 22 neighbors.
Capay runs about 39 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Capay is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Capay leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Capay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Capay live in densely developed areas, about 56 points below the California average of 58%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 78% of households in Capay are family households, above 85% of cities. Capay runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Capay, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Capay looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Capay is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Brooks, CA R+18
- Guinda, CA R+19
- Esparto, CA D+4
- Dunnigan, CA R+19
- Madison, CA R+6
- Zamora, CA R+18
- Arbuckle, CA R+19
- Rumsey, CA R+17
- Pope Valley, CA R+4
- Yolo, CA R+16
Cities with Similar Populations
- Orangeburg, KY R+61
- Dukes, KY R+60
- Topsey, TX R+65
- Todd Creek, CO R+30
- Temple, IN R+50
- New Era, IA R+27
- Dryburg, VA R+29
- Telbasta, NE R+55
- Elmville, OH R+67
- Elco, PA R+38
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.