Arlington County is a Democratic stronghold. About 79% of voters here vote Democratic and 21% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Arlington County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arlington County, ~58% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arlington County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Arlington County leans more Democratic than 21 of 24 neighbors.
Arlington County runs about 51 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Arlington County. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+61) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+50), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Arlington County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arlington County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 77% of adults in Arlington County hold a bachelor's degree, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Arlington County sits in the top fifth on density (about 99%, in the top fraction of counties). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 43% of adults in Arlington County have never been married, above 96% of counties.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Arlington County, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Arlington County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Arlington County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 95% of adults in Arlington County have completed high school, above 93% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Alexandria City, VA D+55
- Falls Church City, VA D+45
- District of Columbia, DC D+80
- Fairfax County, VA D+37
- Fairfax City, VA D+25
- Prince George's County, MD D+71
- Montgomery County, MD D+52
- Manassas Park City, VA D+19
- Prince William County, VA D+21
- Charles County, MD D+38
Counties with Similar Populations
- Union County, NC R+20
- Norfolk City, VA D+44
- Caddo Parish, LA D+18
- Sussex County, DE R+12
- Henry County, GA D+26
- Hays County, TX D+4
- Yavapai County, AZ R+22
- Lafayette Parish, LA R+23
- Saratoga County, NY Even
- Warren County, OH R+30
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.