Arnolds Park, IA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Arnolds Park

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Arnolds Park leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.

 

About more than 99% of adults in Arnolds Park typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arnolds Park, ~42% vote Democratic, ~68% Republican, and ~-10% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Arnolds Park compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Arnolds Park leans more Republican than 2 of 37 neighbors.

Arnolds Park runs about 11 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arnolds Park. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+14), a spread of about 30 points.

Why Arnolds Park leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arnolds Park, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Arnolds Park votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 31%, modestly above the Iowa average of 16%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.

High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout

Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Arnolds Park, IA does.

Why turnout in Arnolds Park looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Arnolds Park is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Arnolds Park have completed high school, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.