Ashley County leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 58% of adults in Ashley County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ashley County, ~16% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ashley County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Ashley County leans more Republican than 8 of 11 neighbors.
Ashley County runs about 16 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Ashley County. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+84) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 79 points.
Why Ashley County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ashley County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Ashley County drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Ashley County sits in the bottom quarter (about 13%, below 95% of counties).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Ashley County, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Ashley County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Ashley County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 5 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in Ashley County report food insecurity, above 89% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Morehouse Parish, LA R+3
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Drew County, AR R+25
- Chicot County, AR D+3
- West Carroll Parish, LA R+70
- Union Parish, LA R+49
- Union County, AR R+20
- Calhoun County, AR R+61
- Ouachita Parish, LA R+13
- Desha County, AR R+7
Counties with Similar Populations
- Butler County, AL R+13
- Green Lake County, WI R+34
- Inyo County, CA R+4
- McDowell County, WV R+56
- Pickens County, AL R+21
- Gem County, ID R+58
- Humphreys County, TN R+60
- Beadle County, SD R+46
- Waseca County, MN R+32
- Perry County, MO R+62
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.