Union County leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Union County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Union County, ~24% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Union County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Union County leans more Republican than 5 of 9 neighbors.
Union County runs about 11 points more Democratic than Arkansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Union County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Union County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Union County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Union County drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; Union County, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in Union County looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 23% of adults in Union County report food insecurity, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Ouachita County, AR R+14
- Calhoun County, AR R+61
- Union Parish, LA R+49
- Claiborne Parish, LA R+11
- Columbia County, AR R+18
- Bradley County, AR R+30
- Ashley County, AR R+46
- Lincoln Parish, LA R+13
- Dallas County, AR R+18
- Lafayette County, AR R+32
Counties with Similar Populations
- Mayes County, OK R+56
- Webster County, MO R+64
- Person County, NC R+24
- Douglas County, MN R+36
- Wayne County, WV R+55
- Crawford County, KS R+28
- Oconto County, WI R+40
- Des Moines County, IA R+8
- Jim Wells County, TX R+14
- Fremont County, WY R+32
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.