Atwater leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 47% of adults in Atwater typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Atwater, ~20% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~53% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Atwater compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Atwater leans more Republican than 10 of 31 neighbors.
Atwater runs about 34 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Atwater is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Atwater. The southwest side is the most split-leaning (R+36) and the west side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 34 points.
Why Atwater leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Atwater, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Atwater votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 76%, well above the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Atwater are family households, above 77% of cities. Atwater runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Atwater, CA does.
Why turnout in Atwater looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Atwater is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 43% of households in Atwater rent, about 18 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 26% of adults in Atwater report food insecurity, above 92% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Castle Garden, CA R+26
- Winton, CA R+6
- McSwain, CA R+37
- Cressey, CA R+40
- Merced, CA D+6
- Livingston, CA D+3
- Buhach, CA R+13
- Ballico, CA R+39
- Delhi, CA R+5
- Snelling, CA R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Warminster, PA R+5
- El Dorado Hills, CA R+9
- Teaneck, NJ D+27
- Kingman, AZ R+38
- Fairport, NY D+22
- Beverly Hills, CA D+18
- Carol Stream, IL D+10
- Raeford, NC D+12
- Westfield, MA Even
- Canonsburg, PA R+14
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.