Castle Garden leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 43% of adults in Castle Garden typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Castle Garden, ~16% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Castle Garden compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Castle Garden leans more Republican than 13 of 29 neighbors.
Castle Garden runs about 46 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Castle Garden is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Castle Garden leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Castle Garden, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Castle Garden votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 26%, far below the California average of 58%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Castle Garden runs against the grain of California, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Castle Garden, CA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Castle Garden looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Castle Garden is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 31% of adults in Castle Garden report food insecurity, above 96% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- McSwain, CA R+37
- Atwater, CA R+13
- Merced, CA D+6
- Winton, CA R+6
- Buhach, CA R+13
- Cressey, CA R+40
- Livingston, CA D+3
- Tuttle, CA R+34
- Santa Rita Park, CA R+55
- Ballico, CA R+39
Cities with Similar Populations
- Excelsior, PA R+51
- Petrified Forest Natl Pk, AZ R+31
- Enon, PA R+59
- Meyers Chuck, AK R+20
- Midco, CA R+20
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.