Bel Air leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Bel Air typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bel Air, ~37% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bel Air compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bel Air leans more Republican than 39 of 114 neighbors.
Bel Air runs about 37 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Bel Air is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bel Air. The east side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+29), a spread of about 29 points.
Why Bel Air leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bel Air, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bel Air votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 65%, well above the Maryland average of 43%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Bel Air runs against the grain of Maryland, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Bel Air, MD sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Bel Air looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bel Air is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bel Air North, MD R+13
- Bel Air South, MD Even
- Pleasant Hills, MD R+17
- Churchville, MD R+22
- Forest Hill, MD R+33
- Abingdon, MD D+8
- Joppa, MD R+23
- Riverside, MD D+30
- Belcamp, MD D+21
- Fallston, MD R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sterling, CO R+44
- New Milford, NJ D+3
- Rancho Mirage, CA D+15
- Oxford, PA R+10
- Three Lakes, FL R+15
- Auburn, MA D+6
- Brockport, NY Even
- Clearlake, CA Even
- Fairview, CA D+42
- Middleburg Heights, OH R+3
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.