Bel Aire leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 65% of adults in Bel Aire typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bel Aire, ~29% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bel Aire compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bel Aire leans more Republican than 1 of 43 neighbors.
Bel Aire runs about 6 points more Democratic than Kansas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bel Aire. The east side is the most split-leaning (R+26) and the southwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 25 points.
Why Bel Aire leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bel Aire, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bel Aire votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 74%, far above the Kansas average of 19%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bel Aire, KS sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bel Aire looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bel Aire is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Kechi, KS R+35
- Greenwich, KS R+44
- Park City, KS R+26
- Eastborough, KS D+7
- Wichita, KS R+13
- Valley Center, KS R+38
- Andover, KS R+31
- Benton, KS R+54
- Sunnydale, KS R+52
Cities with Similar Populations
- Harahan, LA R+29
- Madison, FL D+5
- Cornelia, GA R+50
- Ayden, NC R+8
- Helena Valley West Central, MT R+16
- Sioux Center, IA R+47
- Valdese, NC R+43
- New Richmond, OH R+50
- Springfield, GA R+38
- Toronto, OH R+45
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.