Lucerne Valley leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 46% of adults in Lucerne Valley typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Lucerne Valley, ~15% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Lucerne Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Lucerne Valley leans more Republican than 22 of 23 neighbors.
Lucerne Valley runs about 55 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Lucerne Valley is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Lucerne Valley. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+30), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Lucerne Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Lucerne Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Lucerne Valley votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Lucerne Valley runs about 55 points more Republican.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; Lucerne Valley, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in Lucerne Valley looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Lucerne Valley is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in Lucerne Valley report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 83% of adults in Lucerne Valley have completed high school, below 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fawnskin, CA R+12
- Big Bear Lake, CA R+19
- Big Bear City, CA R+27
- Sugarloaf, CA R+20
- Big Bear, CA R+22
- Apple Valley, CA R+26
- Green Valley Lake, CA R+14
- Cedar Glen, CA R+32
- Running Springs, CA R+27
- Lake Arrowhead, CA R+24
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mount Carmel, TN R+61
- Silt, CO R+29
- Dickson City, PA Even
- Caldwell, TX R+49
- Barling, AR R+38
- Derby, NY R+19
- Dousman, WI R+31
- Jay, OK R+57
- Arrington, TN R+44
- Bloomingdale, GA R+40
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.