Fish Hawk leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 85% of adults in Fish Hawk typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Fish Hawk, ~32% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Fish Hawk compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Fish Hawk leans more Republican than 24 of 52 neighbors.
Fish Hawk runs about 11 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Fish Hawk. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+32) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+20), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Fish Hawk leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Fish Hawk, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Fish Hawk votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 47%, modestly below the Florida average of 57%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 90% of households in Fish Hawk are family households, in the top fraction of cities.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Fish Hawk, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Fish Hawk looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in Fish Hawk have completed high school, about 8 points above the Florida average of 89%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bloomingdale, FL R+15
- Valrico, FL R+15
- Durant, FL R+31
- Riverview, FL D+6
- Lithia, FL R+58
- Balm, FL R+28
- Brandon, FL Even
- Welcome, FL R+72
- Dover, FL R+32
- Gibsonton, FL D+4
Cities with Similar Populations
- Yucca Valley, CA R+22
- Dedham, MA D+27
- Taylorsville, NC R+54
- Hopewell Junction, NY R+17
- Parlin, NJ Even
- Dickson, TN R+51
- Farmington, MO R+41
- Ronkonkoma, NY R+26
- Radcliff, KY R+10
- Ponte Vedra, FL R+26
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.