Bull Run leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 45% of adults in Bull Run typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bull Run, ~28% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bull Run compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bull Run leans more Democratic than 77 of 129 neighbors.
Bull Run runs about 19 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bull Run. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+28) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Bull Run leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bull Run, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 92% of residents in Bull Run live in densely developed areas, about 56 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Bull Run sits in the top quarter (about 40%, above 87% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 47% of adults in Bull Run have never been married, above 97% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Bull Run, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bull Run looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Bull Run is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 67% of households in Bull Run rent, compared to around 23% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Bull Run report food insecurity, above 82% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sudley, VA D+18
- Linton Hall, VA D+9
- Yorkshire, VA D+12
- Manassas Park, VA D+19
- Manassas, VA D+10
- Bristow, VA R+23
- Buckhall, VA D+5
- Gainesville, VA D+6
- Centreville, VA D+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Clinton, NC R+9
- West Mifflin, PA D+5
- Bostonia, CA R+8
- Oxford, AL R+37
- Sherrelwood, CO D+22
- Charlestown, MA D+53
- Destin, FL R+40
- Port Wentworth, GA D+27
- Chesterton, IN R+7
- Sudley, VA D+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.