Manassas, VA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Manassas

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Manassas leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.

 

About 72% of adults in Manassas typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Manassas, ~40% vote Democratic, ~32% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Manassas compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Manassas leans more Democratic than 43 of 125 neighbors.

Manassas runs about 4 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Manassas. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+21) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 20 points.

Why Manassas leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Manassas, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 84% of residents in Manassas live in densely developed areas, about 48 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Manassas sits in the top quarter (about 37%, above 84% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 34% of adults in Manassas have never been married, above 86% of cities.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Manassas, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Manassas looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Manassas is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.