Carlisle County is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Carlisle County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlisle County, ~11% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlisle County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carlisle County is the most Republican-leaning.
Carlisle County runs about 38 points more Republican than Kentucky as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carlisle County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+74) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+64), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Carlisle County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlisle County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 6% of residents in Carlisle County live in densely developed areas, about 12 points below the Kentucky average of 18%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Carlisle County fits that profile on both counts. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 71% of households in Carlisle County are family households, above 82% of counties.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Carlisle County, KY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Carlisle County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 80% of households in Carlisle County own their home, about 5 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Ballard County, KY R+62
- Hickman County, KY R+61
- Graves County, KY R+57
- McCracken County, KY R+30
- Fulton County, KY R+41
- Mississippi County, MO R+35
- Massac County, IL R+46
- Pulaski County, IL R+26
- Alexander County, IL R+4
- Obion County, TN R+52
Counties with Similar Populations
- Washington County, CO R+70
- Jim Hogg County, TX R+2
- Dillingham Census Area, AK D+19
- Ouray County, CO D+13
- Craig County, VA R+64
- Calhoun County, AR R+61
- Rooks County, KS R+66
- Musselshell County, MT R+64
- Scotland County, MO R+64
- Gallatin County, IL R+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.