Carlisle is a Republican stronghold. About 23% of voters here vote Democratic and 77% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Carlisle typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlisle, ~19% vote Democratic, ~64% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlisle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlisle leans more Republican than 65 of 104 neighbors.
Carlisle runs about 43 points more Republican than Ohio as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carlisle. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+56) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+41), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Carlisle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlisle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carlisle votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 62%, well above the Ohio average of 34%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Carlisle, OH sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Carlisle looks the way it does
Turnout in Carlisle sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Franklin, OH R+44
- Germantown, OH R+51
- Miamisburg, OH R+20
- Springboro, OH R+31
- Ellerton, OH R+38
- West Carrollton, OH R+16
- Middletown, OH R+23
- Red Lion, OH R+56
- Farmersville, OH R+65
- Moraine, OH R+11
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zillah, WA R+31
- Montgomery, PA R+45
- Ashland, MO R+22
- Waimea, HI D+24
- Albany, LA R+72
- Dodgeville, WI R+14
- Hogansville, GA R+39
- Villa Park, CA R+22
- Sheridan, CO D+16
- Kountze, TX R+69
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.