Carlsbad North is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 69% of adults in Carlsbad North typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlsbad North, ~15% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~31% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlsbad North compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlsbad North leans more Republican than 2 of 8 neighbors.
Carlsbad North runs about 61 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Carlsbad North is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carlsbad North. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+78) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+54), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Carlsbad North leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlsbad North, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carlsbad North votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Carlsbad North runs about 61 points more Republican.
Adult arthritis and voter turnout
Places with a low adult-arthritis rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carlsbad North, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Arthritis does not drive turnout; it reflects the age and health profile of an area.
Why turnout in Carlsbad North looks the way it does
Turnout in Carlsbad North sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- West Carlsbad, NM R+66
- Carlsbad, NM R+43
- La Huerta, NM R+66
- Otis, NM R+59
- Lakewood, NM R+72
- Loving, NM R+38
- Seven Rivers, NM R+75
- Malaga, NM R+67
- Atoka, NM R+68
- Whites City, NM R+73
Cities with Similar Populations
- Wellpinit, WA D+43
- Coloma, CA R+25
- Laurel Fork, VA R+61
- Winesburg, OH R+81
- Center Ridge, AR R+62
- Musella, GA R+42
- Chama, NM Even
- Hamel, IL R+44
- Dellville, PA R+51
- Sumterville, FL R+61
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.