Carlton County leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Carlton County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlton County, ~33% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlton County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Carlton County leans more Republican than 2 of 4 neighbors.
Carlton County runs about 17 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Carlton County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Carlton County. The north side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Carlton County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlton County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carlton County votes against the grain of Minnesota. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Carlton County runs about 17 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carlton County, MN sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Carlton County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carlton County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 63%, above 69% of counties. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 80% of households in Carlton County own their home, above 80% of counties. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 94% of adults in Carlton County have completed high school, above 80% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Douglas County, WI Even
- St. Louis County, MN D+12
- Pine County, MN R+37
- Aitkin County, MN R+33
- Burnett County, WI R+32
- Lake County, MN R+5
- Kanabec County, MN R+44
- Washburn County, WI R+31
- Itasca County, MN R+22
- Bayfield County, WI D+6
Counties with Similar Populations
- Ware County, GA R+30
- Orange County, VA R+30
- Matagorda County, TX R+32
- Knox County, IN R+41
- Wise County, VA R+55
- Scotts Bluff County, NE R+42
- Laclede County, MO R+61
- Cocke County, TN R+65
- Alexander County, NC R+56
- Greenup County, KY R+52
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.