Carnelian Bay, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Carnelian Bay

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Carnelian Bay leans heavily Democratic by roughly 36 points: about 68% of voters vote Democratic and 32% Republican.

 

About 70% of adults in Carnelian Bay typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carnelian Bay, ~48% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Carnelian Bay compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Carnelian Bay leans more Democratic than 27 of 30 neighbors.

Carnelian Bay runs about 16 points more Democratic than California as a whole.

Why Carnelian Bay leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carnelian Bay, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 66% of adults in Carnelian Bay hold a bachelor's degree, about 38 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in Carnelian Bay have never been married, above 89% of cities.

High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout

Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Carnelian Bay, CA does.

Why turnout in Carnelian Bay looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carnelian Bay is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 79%, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and more than 99% of adults in Carnelian Bay have completed high school, in the top fraction of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.