Caroga Lake, NY Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Caroga Lake

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Caroga Lake leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.

 

About 78% of adults in Caroga Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caroga Lake, ~26% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Caroga Lake compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Caroga Lake leans more Republican than 23 of 84 neighbors.

Caroga Lake runs about 47 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Caroga Lake is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Caroga Lake. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+32), a spread of about 13 points.

Why Caroga Lake leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caroga Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in Caroga Lake live in densely developed areas, about 32 points below the New York average of 36%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Caroga Lake fits that profile on both counts. Caroga Lake runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Caroga Lake, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Caroga Lake looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Caroga Lake is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 60%, below 57% of cities. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 92% of households in Caroga Lake own their home, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.