Carroll Valley leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 94% of adults in Carroll Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carroll Valley, ~29% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~6% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carroll Valley compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carroll Valley leans more Republican than 45 of 113 neighbors.
Carroll Valley runs about 37 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Why Carroll Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carroll Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carroll Valley votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 36%, above 83% of cities). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Carroll Valley, PA sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Carroll Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carroll Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in Carroll Valley own their home, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 75%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Fairfield, PA R+48
- Fairplay, PA R+43
- Virginia Mills, PA R+58
- Emmitsburg, MD R+16
- Glen Forney, PA R+50
- Greenmount, PA R+33
- Knoxlyn, PA R+43
- Cascade, MD R+43
- Sabillasville, MD R+42
- Motters, MD R+55
Cities with Similar Populations
- Lake, MI R+42
- Clinton, PA R+36
- Cambridge, NY R+9
- Stroud, OK R+59
- Corfu, NY R+42
- Northwest Harwich, MA D+17
- Cuthbert, GA D+14
- Ben Wheeler, TX R+75
- Scio, OR R+43
- Captain Cook, HI D+18
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.