Carsonville is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 61% of adults in Carsonville typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carsonville, ~12% vote Democratic, ~49% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carsonville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carsonville leans more Republican than 25 of 75 neighbors.
Carsonville runs about 67 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Carsonville is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Carsonville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carsonville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carsonville votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Carsonville runs about 67 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Carsonville, VA sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Carsonville looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Carsonville is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Carsonville rent, above 85% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in Carsonville report food insecurity, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Peach Bottom, VA R+49
- Independence, VA R+52
- Lower Elk Creek, VA R+63
- Oldtown, VA R+61
- Stevens Creek, VA R+62
- Fries, VA R+64
- Spring Valley, VA R+64
- Elk Creek, VA R+62
- Hickory Flat, VA R+64
- Galax, VA R+50
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hugo, OR R+33
- Waubeek, IA R+33
- Allendorf, IA R+65
- Nadeau, MI R+44
- Pearsons Corner, SD R+55
- Claire City, SD R+44
- Fort Henry, MO R+65
- Hays Mill, AL R+69
- Kelleys Island, OH R+27
- Pedee, ID R+54
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.