Centre Island leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 52% of adults in Centre Island typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Centre Island, ~22% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Centre Island compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Centre Island leans more Republican than 190 of 256 neighbors.
Centre Island runs about 28 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while Centre Island is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Centre Island leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Centre Island, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Centre Island votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while Centre Island runs about 28 points more Republican.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Centre Island, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Centre Island looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Centre Island is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Cove Neck, NY R+13
- Bayville, NY R+23
- Mill Neck, NY R+8
- Oyster Bay, NY R+13
- Oyster Bay Cove, NY R+19
- Lloyd Harbor, NY R+6
- East Norwich, NY R+19
- Lattingtown, NY R+10
- Matinecock, NY R+10
- Laurel Hollow, NY R+15
Cities with Similar Populations
- Red Lick, MS D+68
- Bryantsville, KY R+52
- Scotland, MD R+12
- Banner, MS R+81
- Sekiu, WA R+2
- Scranton, KY R+66
- Gem, KS R+80
- Lattasburg, OH R+57
- Clifford, PA R+36
- Coahoma, MS D+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.