Chapel Hill is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Chapel Hill typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chapel Hill, ~8% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chapel Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chapel Hill leans more Republican than 18 of 42 neighbors.
Chapel Hill runs about 38 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Chapel Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chapel Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in Chapel Hill drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Chapel Hill, AR sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Chapel Hill looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Chapel Hill is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 13 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 35% of households in Chapel Hill rent, above 90% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in Chapel Hill report food insecurity, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Process City, AR R+64
- DeQueen, AR R+36
- Kellum, AR R+68
- Horatio, AR R+66
- Pullman, AR R+69
- Neal Springs, AR R+64
- Walnut Springs, AR R+73
- Geneva, AR R+72
- Red Wing, AR R+72
Cities with Similar Populations
- Troy, MN R+36
- Swords, LA R+18
- Viewmonte, NY D+14
- Shelby Basin, NY R+45
- Bentonville, OH R+65
- Hessville, NY R+48
- Abbot, ME R+44
- Millwood, MO R+65
- McGintytown, AR R+75
- West Middleburgh, NY R+27
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.