Chapel Hill is a Republican stronghold. About 21% of voters here vote Democratic and 79% Republican.
About 86% of adults in Chapel Hill typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Chapel Hill, ~18% vote Democratic, ~68% Republican, and ~14% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Chapel Hill compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Chapel Hill leans more Republican than 32 of 54 neighbors.
Chapel Hill runs about 39 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Chapel Hill leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chapel Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in Chapel Hill drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in Chapel Hill are family households, above 95% of cities.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Chapel Hill, MO sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Chapel Hill looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 97% of households in Chapel Hill own their home, about 19 points above the Missouri average of 78%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Chapel Hill have completed high school, above 91% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sni Mills, MO R+55
- Bates City, MO R+58
- Pittsville, MO R+60
- Lake Lafayette, MO R+61
- Lone Jack, MO R+48
- Kingsville, MO R+58
- Oak Grove, MO R+40
- Odessa, MO R+50
- Columbus, MO R+60
- Tarsney Lakes, MO R+43
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cullen, VA R+17
- Moore Park, MI R+37
- Cardville, ME R+35
- Crescent, OR R+41
- Saybrook, OH R+29
- Briggsville, WI R+30
- Butters, NC R+58
- Lake Como, FL R+45
- Taylorshire, NY R+18
- Big Flats, WI R+31
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.