Tarsney Lakes leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Tarsney Lakes typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tarsney Lakes, ~25% vote Democratic, ~64% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tarsney Lakes compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Tarsney Lakes leans more Republican than 39 of 70 neighbors.
Tarsney Lakes runs about 25 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tarsney Lakes. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+24), a spread of about 24 points.
Why Tarsney Lakes leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tarsney Lakes, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 84% of households in Tarsney Lakes are family households, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Tarsney Lakes, MO sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Tarsney Lakes looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Tarsney Lakes is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lake Lotawana, MO R+31
- Lone Jack, MO R+48
- Grain Valley, MO R+26
- Sni Mills, MO R+55
- Blue Springs, MO R+7
- Oak Grove, MO R+40
- Lake Tapawingo, MO Even
- Lees Summit, MO Even
- Bates City, MO R+58
- Greenwood, MO R+29
Cities with Similar Populations
- Shreve, AL R+63
- La Pointe, WI D+47
- Nichburg, AL D+22
- Cedar Grove, NM R+24
- Rock Falls, IA R+36
- Atwood, OK R+72
- Loveless, AL R+78
- Rock Hill, LA R+71
- Tracy, IA R+50
- Middle Brook, MO R+64
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.