Oak Grove leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 73% of adults in Oak Grove typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Oak Grove, ~22% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Oak Grove compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Oak Grove leans more Republican than 24 of 67 neighbors.
Oak Grove runs about 22 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Oak Grove. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+51) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+31), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Oak Grove leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Oak Grove, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Oak Grove votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 38%, well above the Missouri average of 22%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Oak Grove, MO sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Oak Grove looks the way it does
Turnout in Oak Grove sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sni Mills, MO R+55
- Grain Valley, MO R+26
- Bates City, MO R+58
- Tarsney Lakes, MO R+43
- Napoleon, MO R+63
- Levasy, MO R+57
- Blue Springs, MO R+7
- Chapel Hill, MO R+57
- Lone Jack, MO R+48
- Lake Lotawana, MO R+31
Cities with Similar Populations
- River Edge, NJ D+14
- Millersville, PA D+4
- Amherst, NH D+17
- Wanaque, NJ R+13
- Yeadon, PA D+86
- Adairsville, GA R+60
- Monett, MO R+50
- Quarryville, PA R+52
- Conway, FL R+9
- Forest City, FL R+11
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.