Chapel Hill, NC Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Chapel Hill

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Chapel Hill leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.

 

About 81% of adults in the Chapel Hill area typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Chapel Hill area, ~57% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Chapel Hill compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Chapel Hill leans more Democratic than 38 of 40 neighbors.

Chapel Hill runs about 46 points more Democratic than North Carolina as a whole. North Carolina leans Republican overall, while Chapel Hill is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Chapel Hill. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+67) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+5), a spread of about 62 points.

Why Chapel Hill leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Chapel Hill, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 53% of adults in the Chapel Hill area hold a bachelor's degree, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Chapel Hill sits in the top fifth on density (about 60%, above 90% of cities). Chapel Hill runs against the grain of North Carolina, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Chapel Hill, NC sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Chapel Hill looks the way it does

Turnout in the Chapel Hill area sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.