Toledo, OH Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Toledo

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Toledo leans slightly Democratic by roughly 6 points: about 53% of voters vote Democratic and 47% Republican.

 

About 72% of adults in the Toledo area typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in the Toledo area, ~38% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~28% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Toledo compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Toledo leans more Democratic than 81 of 83 neighbors.

Toledo runs about 18 points more Democratic than Ohio as a whole. Ohio leans Republican overall, while Toledo is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Toledo. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+29) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+37), a spread of about 65 points.

Why Toledo leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Toledo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 76% of residents in the Toledo area live in densely developed areas, about 39 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in the Toledo area have never been married, above 91% of cities. Toledo runs against the grain of Ohio, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.

Walkability and Democratic lean

Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Toledo, OH sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.

Why turnout in Toledo looks the way it does

Turnout in the Toledo area sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.