Mesa leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 64% of adults in Mesa typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Mesa, ~30% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~36% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Mesa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Mesa leans more Republican than 16 of 28 neighbors.
Politically, Mesa sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Mesa. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+30), a spread of about 47 points.
Why Mesa leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Mesa votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 95%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Mesa, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Mesa looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Mesa is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Higley, AZ R+17
- Gilbert, AZ R+12
- Chandler, AZ D+5
- Tempe, AZ D+27
- Apache Junction, AZ R+28
- Guadalupe, AZ D+40
- Queen Creek, AZ R+33
- Fountain Hills, AZ R+21
- Fort McDowell, AZ D+43
- Goldfield, AZ R+47
Cities with Similar Populations
- Chattanooga, TN R+27
- Staten Island, NY R+21
- Spokane, WA R+6
- Chapel Hill, NC D+43
- Harrisburg, PA R+2
- Springfield, MA D+14
- Long Beach, CA D+40
- Toledo, OH D+7
- Melbourne, FL R+19
- Augusta, GA Even
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.