Pinal County leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 66% of adults in Pinal County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Pinal County, ~28% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Pinal County compares
Pinal County runs about 11 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Pinal County. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 45 points.
Why Pinal County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Pinal County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Pinal County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 56%, well above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 74% of households in Pinal County are family households, above 92% of counties.
Renting and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Pinal County, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Pinal County looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 81% of households in Pinal County own their home, about 9 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Maricopa County, AZ D+3
- Gila County, AZ R+27
- Pima County, AZ D+16
- Graham County, AZ R+39
- Yavapai County, AZ R+22
- Santa Cruz County, AZ D+17
- Cochise County, AZ R+20
- Greenlee County, AZ R+45
- Navajo County, AZ R+3
- La Paz County, AZ R+28
Counties with Similar Populations
- Hillsborough County, NH D+11
- Berks County, PA R+8
- Clackamas County, OR D+13
- Cameron County, TX R+2
- Loudoun County, VA D+18
- Lucas County, OH D+17
- Sarasota County, FL R+17
- Richland County, SC D+38
- Mobile County, AL R+8
- Monterey County, CA D+29
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.