Monterey County leans Democratic by roughly 28 points: about 64% of voters vote Democratic and 36% Republican.
About 50% of adults in Monterey County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Monterey County, ~32% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Monterey County compares
Monterey County sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable counties nearby.
Monterey County runs about 8 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Monterey County. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+60) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+5), a spread of about 65 points.
Why Monterey County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Monterey County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 77% of residents in Monterey County live in densely developed areas, about 41 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in Monterey County have never been married, above 94% of counties.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Monterey County, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Monterey County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Monterey County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 48% of households in Monterey County rent, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in Monterey County report food insecurity, above 88% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- San Benito County, CA D+12
- Santa Cruz County, CA D+49
- Santa Clara County, CA D+32
- Merced County, CA R+3
- San Mateo County, CA D+48
- Stanislaus County, CA R+8
- Alameda County, CA D+49
- San Francisco County, CA D+61
- San Joaquin County, CA D+4
- Contra Costa County, CA D+36
Counties with Similar Populations
- Dakota County, MN D+11
- Jefferson Parish, LA D+4
- Sarasota County, FL R+17
- Lucas County, OH D+17
- Santa Barbara County, CA D+26
- Berks County, PA R+8
- Pinal County, AZ R+16
- Solano County, CA D+21
- Hillsborough County, NH D+11
- York County, PA R+21
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.