Downtown Tempe leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 38% of adults in Downtown Tempe typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Downtown Tempe, ~26% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Downtown Tempe compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Downtown Tempe leans more Democratic than 7 of 10 neighbors.
Downtown Tempe runs about 44 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Downtown Tempe is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Downtown Tempe. The southeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+52) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+29), a spread of about 22 points.
Why Downtown Tempe leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Downtown Tempe, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 77% of adults in Downtown Tempe hold a bachelor's degree, about 49 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 89% of adults in Downtown Tempe have never been married, in the top fraction of neighborhoods. Downtown Tempe runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Downtown Tempe, Tempe, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Downtown Tempe looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 84% of households in Downtown Tempe rent, about 59 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 98% of adults in Downtown Tempe have completed high school, above 86% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Tempe Junction, Tempe, AZ D+39
- Riverside, Tempe, AZ D+42
- Sunset, Tempe, AZ D+41
- Meyer Park, Tempe, AZ D+29
- Escalante, Tempe, AZ D+31
- Baseline-Hardy, Tempe, AZ D+24
- Peterson, Tempe, AZ D+30
- Wood Park, Tempe, AZ D+30
- Tempe Royal Estates, Tempe, AZ D+22
- Southwest Mesa, Mesa, AZ D+14
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Cane Ridge, Antioch, TN D+5
- The Paseos, Las Vegas, NV R+4
- Cortez Hill, San Diego, CA D+50
- West Modesto, Modesto, CA D+8
- Beechview, Pittsburgh, PA D+34
- Elgin Historic District, Elgin, IL D+38
- Edison, Kalamazoo, MI D+43
- Bloomfield, Pittsburgh, PA D+64
- Windsor Road, Austin, TX D+41
- Loyal Heights, Seattle, WA D+80
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.