Southwest Mesa, Mesa, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Southwest Mesa

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Southwest Mesa leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.

 

About 53% of adults in Southwest Mesa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Southwest Mesa, ~30% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Southwest Mesa compares

Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Southwest Mesa leans more Democratic than 3 of 9 neighbors.

Southwest Mesa runs about 20 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Southwest Mesa is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by block within Southwest Mesa. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+25) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 25 points.

Why Southwest Mesa leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Southwest Mesa, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Southwest Mesa votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Southwest Mesa runs about 20 points more Democratic.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Southwest Mesa, Mesa, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Southwest Mesa looks the way it does

Turnout in Southwest Mesa sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.