Dumfries leans heavily Democratic by roughly 40 points: about 70% of voters vote Democratic and 30% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Dumfries typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Dumfries, ~40% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Dumfries compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Dumfries leans more Democratic than 88 of 109 neighbors.
Dumfries runs about 35 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Dumfries. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+60) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+22), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Dumfries leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Dumfries, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 72% of residents in Dumfries live in densely developed areas, about 35 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Dumfries sits in the top quarter (about 35%, above 81% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in Dumfries have never been married, above 90% of cities.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Dumfries, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Dumfries looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Dumfries is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Dumfries report food insecurity, above 80% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Triangle, VA D+43
- Cherry Hill, VA D+51
- Montclair, VA D+27
- Neabsco, VA D+44
- Quantico Base, VA R+5
- Quantico, VA D+38
- Woodbridge, VA D+35
- Dale City, VA D+30
- Marumsco, VA D+23
- Potomac Mills, VA D+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Cheswick, PA R+7
- Medina, NY R+23
- Roscommon, MI R+25
- Louisa, KY R+64
- Southwick, MA R+15
- Hempstead, TX R+17
- Princeton, KY R+51
- Upper Saddle River, NJ R+8
- Thermal, CA D+11
- Richfield, UT R+67
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.