Thermal, CA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Thermal

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Thermal leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.

 

About 40% of adults in Thermal typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Thermal, ~22% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Thermal compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Thermal leans more Democratic than 10 of 17 neighbors.

Thermal runs about 9 points more Republican than California as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Thermal. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the south side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 36 points.

Why Thermal leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Thermal, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 41% of adults in Thermal have never been married, modestly above similar-sized cities (around 28%).

Preventive-care access and voter turnout

Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Thermal, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.

Why turnout in Thermal looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Thermal is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 16 points below the California average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 32% of households in Thermal rent, above 86% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 36% of adults in Thermal report food insecurity, above 98% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.