Earlysville leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 89% of adults in Earlysville typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Earlysville, ~49% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Earlysville compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Earlysville leans more Democratic than 72 of 80 neighbors.
Politically, Earlysville sits close to the rest of Virginia.
Why Earlysville leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Earlysville, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 64% of adults in Earlysville hold a bachelor's degree, about 36 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Earlysville, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Earlysville looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Earlysville is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 76%, about 16 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 90% of households in Earlysville own their home, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in Earlysville have completed high school, above 86% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Hollymead, VA D+8
- Free Union, VA D+13
- Ruckersville, VA R+20
- Dyke, VA R+21
- Charlottesville, VA D+45
- Burnley, VA D+9
- Barboursville, VA R+14
- White Hall, VA D+10
- Stanardsville, VA R+37
- Shady Grove, VA R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Midway, FL D+35
- Margaret, AL R+53
- Poynette, WI R+17
- Homestead Meadows North, TX Even
- Chisholm, MN Even
- Eureka Springs, AR R+39
- Shermans Dale, PA R+56
- Scandia, MN R+20
- DeMarest, NJ D+15
- Ravenel, SC Even
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.