Ellis County leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 67% of adults in Ellis County typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ellis County, ~23% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ellis County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Ellis County leans more Republican than 5 of 9 neighbors.
Ellis County runs about 18 points more Republican than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Ellis County. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+63) and the north side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 55 points.
Why Ellis County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ellis County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 79% of households in Ellis County are family households, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Adult arthritis and voter turnout
Places with a low adult-arthritis rate tend to turn out at a higher rate; Ellis County, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Arthritis does not drive turnout; it reflects the age and health profile of an area.
Why turnout in Ellis County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Ellis County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Dallas County, TX D+27
- Johnson County, TX R+50
- Navarro County, TX R+34
- Kaufman County, TX R+29
- Tarrant County, TX D+3
- Hill County, TX R+58
- Rockwall County, TX R+35
- Collin County, TX R+6
- Denton County, TX R+7
- Hood County, TX R+61
Counties with Similar Populations
- El Dorado County, CA R+13
- Butler County, PA R+28
- Livingston County, MI R+23
- Outagamie County, WI R+13
- Sarpy County, NE R+10
- Hernando County, FL R+33
- Saginaw County, MI D+2
- Sumner County, TN R+40
- Sangamon County, IL Even
- Santa Rosa County, FL R+49
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.