Tarrant County is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Tarrant County typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tarrant County, ~29% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Tarrant County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Tarrant County leans more Democratic than 9 of 10 neighbors.
Tarrant County runs about 17 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while Tarrant County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Tarrant County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+24), a spread of about 46 points.
Why Tarrant County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tarrant County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Tarrant County votes against the grain of Texas. Texas leans Republican overall, while Tarrant County runs about 17 points more Democratic.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tarrant County, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Tarrant County looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Tarrant County is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 38% of households in Tarrant County rent, above 91% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Johnson County, TX R+50
- Dallas County, TX D+27
- Denton County, TX R+7
- Parker County, TX R+62
- Ellis County, TX R+31
- Wise County, TX R+69
- Hood County, TX R+61
- Collin County, TX R+6
- Somervell County, TX R+67
- Rockwall County, TX R+35
Counties with Similar Populations
- San Bernardino County, CA Even
- Bexar County, TX D+14
- Clark County, NV D+12
- King County, WA D+45
- Broward County, FL D+20
- Santa Clara County, CA D+32
- Queens County, NY D+23
- Riverside County, CA Even
- Wayne County, MI D+33
- New York County, NY D+62
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.