Hernando County leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Hernando County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Hernando County, ~26% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Hernando County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Hernando County leans more Republican than 6 of 7 neighbors.
Hernando County runs about 20 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Hernando County. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+42) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+28), a spread of about 14 points.
Why Hernando County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Hernando County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Hernando County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 72%, well above the Florida average of 57%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; Hernando County, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Hernando County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Hernando County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 57%, below 64% of counties. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 83% of households in Hernando County own their home, above 90% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Pasco County, FL R+24
- Citrus County, FL R+43
- Sumter County, FL R+31
- Hillsborough County, FL Even
- Pinellas County, FL R+3
- Lake County, FL R+25
- Marion County, FL R+28
- Polk County, FL R+18
- Levy County, FL R+56
- Orange County, FL D+14
Counties with Similar Populations
- Livingston County, MI R+23
- Butler County, PA R+28
- Sumner County, TN R+40
- Sangamon County, IL Even
- Ellis County, TX R+31
- Minnehaha County, SD R+10
- Racine County, WI D+7
- El Dorado County, CA R+13
- Deschutes County, OR D+5
- Outagamie County, WI R+13
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.