Ellis Lake leans heavily Democratic by roughly 42 points: about 71% of voters vote Democratic and 29% Republican.
About 45% of adults in Ellis Lake typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ellis Lake, ~32% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ellis Lake compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Ellis Lake leans more Democratic than 3 of 6 neighbors.
Ellis Lake runs about 22 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Ellis Lake. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+49) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+39), a spread of about 10 points.
Why Ellis Lake leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ellis Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 46% of adults in Ellis Lake have never been married, modestly above similar-sized neighborhoods (around 34%).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Ellis Lake, Concord, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Ellis Lake looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 70% of households in Ellis Lake rent, about 45 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 11% of homes in Ellis Lake have more than one occupant per room, above 92% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- Downtown Concord, Concord, CA D+44
- Cambridge Park, Concord, CA D+40
- Pacheco-Martinez, Martinez, CA D+32
- Pleasant Valley, Walnut Creek, CA D+49
- Northgate Area, Walnut Creek, CA D+38
- Downtown Walnut Creek, Walnut Creek, CA D+52
- Downtown Lafayette, Lafayette, CA D+53
- Glencove, Vallejo, CA D+40
- Merriwood, Oakland, CA D+64
- Piedmont Pines, Oakland, CA D+66
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Barclay Hills, Oregon City, OR D+22
- Alderman Park, Jacksonville, FL D+14
- Ocean Avenue, Portland, ME D+77
- Galindo, Austin, TX D+54
- Venerable Flackville, Indianapolis, IN D+70
- Browncroft, Rochester, NY D+47
- Esprit, St. Cloud, FL R+14
- Abbot, Ann Arbor, MI D+60
- Tam O'shanter, Bellevue, WA D+44
- Woodbridge at Monte Viejo, San Antonio, TX D+9
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.